As a gamer, you need to always search for a mathematical edge rather than rely on your individual impulses or intuition. Before a gamer picks a sport and places their bet, they need to consider some important questions. These include how, why, where, when, what and who. Only then would Top advises in how you can choose the best sports for betting make any sense.
Top advises in how you can choose the best sports for betting
Take for example the placing of a bet on an English Premier League Game via live sports streaming. These questions could accordingly be placed. Who should you bet on? Arsenal. What to place a bet on? Top four finish. When to place a bet? Now. Which site to place the bet? A site offering great odds. Why to place that bet there? The site appears to have an under-pricing. How much to bet on a selected outcome?
Most of the articles that talk about any criterion tend to concentrate on the initial five questions. In normal circumstances, they use of statistical or mathematical justifications to arrive at answers on why, such as using standard deviation for making bets.
In making decisions in finance, the major issue is not merely finding appropriate financial products for investing into but also making decisions on how to subdivide portfolios. In a similar situation, a critical question for a gamer is figuring out what amount to wager. A good choice is using Kelly Criterion or any of its derivatives. It calculates which proportion of your funds to place on a bet on whose outcome the odds are higher than normal, enabling your funds to grow exponentially.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
In essence, Kelly Criterion applied on several biggest betting sites sporting outcomes would enable a pu
nter pick on the sport promising the highest return on an investment. It is based on the formula (bp-1)/b where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p is the success probability and q is the failure probability that is 1 minus p. In an example, you could consider making a bet that a coin will land on its head at 2.00, but this coin is biased with a fifty-two percent chance of landing on its heads.
In this case, p is equals to 0.52, q is equal to 1 – 0.52 which equals 0.48, while b is equal to 2 – 1 which is 1. This works out to 0.04 = (0.52 x 1 – 0.48). This means Kelly Criterion recommends making a four percent bet which a positive percentage is implying an edge favoring your bankroll so funds increase exponentially. A negative means you should not make a wager on the outcome.
Before any online sports betting gamer can apply this criterion, they have to have prior familiarity with the games upon which they would making their bets. It would be an act of futility for an American, who is only familiar with American Football, to apply the criterion on an English League Game they have no idea what happens. Again the odds must exist with a bookmaker otherwise the criterion would be an act of futility.
In the final analysis, Kelly Criterion presents gamers with distinct advantages compared to other staking methods including Arbitrage and Fibonacci methods. This is because there are lower risks. It does, however call for precise calculations regarding the likelihood of an outcome of an event. It demands discipline for it to provide high growth for a bankroll.